THE PRICE OF THE LOCKDOWN - THE EFFECTS OF SOCIAL DISTANCING ON THE INDIAN ECONOMY AND BUSINESS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Hasnan Baber¹ and D. Tripati Rao²

¹Endicott College of International Studies, Woosong University, Daejeon, South Korea
²Indian Institute of Management Lucknow, Lucknow, India

The decision on immediate lockdown in India put economic, social and religious activities to a grinding halt. The paper examines the impact of the lockdown and social distancing policies on economic activities in India, using a multivariate econometric model for the data collected in the period from 1st January to 31st August 2020. While the social distancing policy is captured in terms of internal movement, domestic travel and international travel restrictions, its effect on the economic activity and the business activity is captured through stock prices, purchasing managers’ index and the exchange rate. Confirmed COVID-19 cases and related deaths are also used as the independent variables. The results reveal a significant negative impact of social distancing policies on the economic activity and the business activity, the stock market and the exchange rate. Furthermore, the economic stimulus provided by the Government could not bring a positive influence on the stock market.

Keywords: lockdown, economy, finance, COVID-19, social distancing, India

JEL Classification: E65, E62