ENERGY PRICES AS SIGNIFICANT SUPPLY-SIDE SHOCKS: THE CASE OF THE FORMER SFRY AND VIŠEGRAD GROUP MEMBER COUNTRIES

Aleksandra Prascevic and Milutin Jesic

University of Belgrade, Faculty of Economics, Belgrade, The Republic of Serbia

The influence of energy prices on macroeconomic stability is analyzed in this paper. Energy prices represent significant supply-side shocks, which have been leading cyclical fluctuation triggers through economic history. The analysis includes the countries that were the members of the former SFRY, as well as the countries the members of the Višegrad Group. The indicators under observation are presented for the EU27 for the purposes of comparison. In accordance with economic theory, the main conclusion of the paper is that supply-side shocks can be a significant source of cyclical fluctuations and an inflation trigger. Therefore, policymakers have a complex task to minimize the effects of these shocks. Nowadays, when energy prices are reaching historically high levels, the scientific contribution of supply-side shocks can be found in the deep analysis and well-grounded estimations of the role of those shocks in the preservation of macroeconomic stability and the economic policy measures necessary for the minimization of their negative effects.

Keywords: supply-side shocks, energy prices, business cycles, macroeconomic spillovers, former SFRY countries, Višegrad Group member countries

JEL Classification: E31, Q41, Q43